As early as 1798 Thomas Robert Malthus, an English economist, expressed his opinion about the rapid growth of the world's population in his "Essay on the Principle of Population". He stated that population increased in a geometrical ratio (2, 4, 8, 16, 32….) while subsistence (and employment) increased only in an arithmetical ratio (2, 4, 6, 8, 10….). Consequently, unless there were checks on the growth of the population, a dearth of material for subsistence (and employment) would soon prevail. All plans for social reform would be in vain unless they included a lowering of the birthrate.
It is now nearly 200 years since Malthus' views were first published, and even though science and technology have advanced far and been very successful in increasing subsistence, there is still no certainty about the future unless population growth is checked: "Zero population growth" has become a popular motto in campaigns for family planning and birth control.
In 1930 Indonesia had a population of 60 million; in 1954 it was 81 million; the present estimate is about 150 million. The average annual rate of increase is around 2.2 percent. If the population continues to grow at this rate, in the year 2000 we will have a population of over 200 million.
To get an idea of how enormous and complex the problems are, let us suppose that the population increases by 2 per cent per year. That means about three million more people each year, which means that each year there will be three million more people to be fed, housed, clothed, and educated; in short, to be taken care of. Cities will grow larger and larger, streets will be more and more crowded, unemployment rate will become higher and higher.
There will be more cars, more motorcycles, and consequently accidents will be more likely to happen. As peoples' needs increase, so industries will grow up to produce the things needed for building roads, houses, and cars; for making clothes, foodstuffs and so on. However, besides its positive as a producer of goods and employer of labour, industry has an undesirable side effect. It is a source of pollution. It pollutes the air, the soil, the water in wells and rivers, and even the sea. Legislative measures should be taken to prevent, or at least mininize pollution.
It is, therefore, of the greatest importance that population growth be checked. To do this it is necessary to know its causes. They are a high .birthrate and a low death rate. Of course, if the death rate is low, it should not be tampered with; it is, in fact, the result of better living conditions, and better medical care. Thus there is no alternative but to lower the birthrate, by encouraging birth control. The government's campaign for birth control must succeed. If it does not, all ourplans and all our efforts to improve the nation's prosperity will be in vain.
Source: Bahasa Inggris 3a untuk SMA, Jakarta, Balai Pustaka, 1989.
